Denver Summit Host Portland Thorns: The Table Says Portland. The Numbers Say Otherwise.

Kate Hanson: 11th place hosts third place tomorrow. 16 points against 27. 11 points apart in the table. this is closer to a coin flip. I ran the numbers this week. Two different models. One says Portland. The other says Denver Summit. They might even be the favorite. Saturday is going to tell us which model is telling the truth. This is the 5280 pitch. women's soccer at altitude. I'm Kate Hansen. Let's get into it. Tomorrow is not a normal match day. Centennial Stadium is opening its gates for the very first time. Lindsay Heaps debuts with the club where she won a championship. Sophia Wilson's coming home to Colorado wearing the wrong colors, let's be honest. And I was at the stadium yesterday for the first training session on that grass. Fresh audio from Lindsay, from Nick Cushing, club president Jen Millay. We're going to get into the numbers, the big occasion, and the 12th player. That's you. So we'll start with the table. And as we start things off, this is a fun birthday episode for me. Today is my birthday. I can't think of anything better for my birthday than talking with you all about our favorite team, the Denver Summit. because this game tomorrow, it is going to be huge. It's going to be on CBS. If you can't make it there, it'll be on CBS. Go to one of the local bars that will have game on with the game sound. I know that DNVR bar will have it on, the 99ers. There's a whole bunch of watch parties happening around the state if you can't be there in person. And we're going to get into being there in person because there's a lot to talk about there too, but. Let's start with the table because I don't like the table. The table is brutal and I don't think it's telling the full story. Portland is coming in in third place. They have 27 points, eight wins, three draws, and four losses on the season. Now Denver sits at 11th place. 16 points, four wins, four draws, and five losses. If you stop listening to the episode right now, you're probably thinking, well, that's a mismatch. No way Denver is going to win. Don't stop here. Keep listening because I'm to show you why Denver Summit really has a strong chance of winning this game. Here's the thing about the Portland team. It's their expected goal difference. The quality of chances they create versus the quality that they give up. It's negative. minus 0.6, 11th in the league. Denver's is plus 0.6, So I want you just to think about that. The team that's actually in 11th place has better underlying numbers than the third place team. So how, how is Portland third? Two words, finishing and goalkeeping. The Thorns have conceded 16 goals on 23.4 expected. And that That's 7.4 goals over performance. And most of it is Mackenzie Arnold. here's a matchup that the club's own game notes are billing directly. Arnold versus Abby Smith. This is a league level goals prevented battle. Arnold sits at 5.4, Smith sits at 5.0. Third in the entire league and she's second in the league per 90. This is a battle of the keepers. Four tenths of a goal separate the two best shot stoppers so far this season in the game. Whoever blinks first, that's probably going to be the deciding factor for this game. Denver's problem is the opposite one. The Summit have scored 19 goals on 24 expected. 1.4 goals left on the table. fifth in the league and big chances created, third most chances missed So this is the thing, the attack is generating. It's the finishing that's the problem right now. So I built a simple match model and fed it both versions and the results based version, actual goals, says Portland wins about half the time. Denver wins about a quarter of the time. The process based version, Expected goals were finishing and goalkeeping regressed to normal flips it Denver becomes the slight favorite at home And it's it's roughly a coin flip even money here That is the whole game in two numbers. If Arnold keeps stealing goals and Denver keeps missing, Portland wins. If Saturday looks like the underlying stats, this is Denver's match to take. And here's what might surprise you about how Portland actually plays because the reputation and the reality have drifted apart. This is not a team that dominates the ball. The Thorns are 13th in the league in possession at 46.5%. 10th in pass is completed and yet they lead the entire NWSL in clearances per match and in saves per match. First in both, that is the fingerprint of a team that absorbs pressure, clears its lines, trusts its goalkeeper and hits you on the break. head coach Robert Villaham is in his first season in Portland and he was hired from Tottenham back in March, less than two weeks before opening day. And he has them at 1.8 points per game playing exactly that winning way. Denver, by contrast, has held more of the ball this season. We are dominating when it comes to possession at 51%. The Summit will probably have possession tomorrow because that's the type of game that we've been playing all season. The question is whether the possession can turn into goals or opportunities. And when Portland does break, it runs through two players. Olivia Moultrie. their highest rated player this season, five goals, five assists, most chances created on the team. And Pietro Torden leads the team with six assists. Moultrie between the lines, Tordrin in the final pass, and of course, our one and only Denver, Denver's own Sophia Wilson on the end of it. That is the machine. Devon Lynch, Delaney Sheehan, Lindsey Heaps, that midfield, they are going to spend their entire afternoon trying to unplug that trio. And Nick Cushing sees the exact same gap that I do. He just uses his own scoreboard for it. the pregame press conference yesterday.

Katie: that I judged the games are on chances and opportunities. We were nine chances and three opportunities to their five chances. I think if we just look at our defensive structure, five chances at home is too much. So we have to plug that hole.

Kate Hanson: nine chances and three opportunities to their five. That's the coach. Thank you Nick for doing my job for me Denver out-chanced and out-created Houston by a mile and we ended up with the draw because both Houston goals came off a crosses that weren't defended. And here's the matchup problem. Portland is tied for the most set piece goals in the league. Seven, only two conceded. Dead balls and wide service, that is exactly the hole that Nick Cushing is talking about. Plugging against the team, that is. best equipped to exploit it. Now the stat that belongs on the locker room wall right underneath Ted Lassos' believe sign is straight from the pre-match report. Neither of these teams has won a single match after conceding the first goal. Not one. Denver has trailed at some point in five matches. Zero wins, zero draws, five losses. Portland has trailed in five one point from a possible 15. And Portland has scored first in 12 of 15 matches. The timing data says the same thing. The Thorns have scored six goals inside the opening 15 minutes. That is their best window. While Denver's worst is the final 15, where they have conceded five. All right, all you couch coaches, there it is. There's your game plan. Survived the first quarter. land the first punch and history will handle the rest. One more Portland note before we move on. They are not arriving in form. Two losses in their last three. Four nothing in Louisville sandwiched between a 3-1 loss at Kansas City and a two nothing loss in In the Cascadia rivalry where they went down inside eight minutes and never found an equalizer. Raylin Turner, their most efficient scorer at .6 goals per 90, missed the Seattle match with an injury, but the league's pre-match report lists no injuries for tomorrow. So I would say let's all plan on her playing. We'll have to keep an eye on the starting 11. If you're not following me on Instagram, be sure you do that because I post everything as soon as I find out and share it with you. Anyways, Denver's own form is a mirror of the season. Two wins, a draw, two losses in the last five. We beat Orlando 3-1, won at Louisville, got run off the field by Kansas 3-0 in the first match back from the break. Then Sunday's 2-2 draw against Houston, Three months without splitting a point. Something about this group forces a verdict one way or another, which feels amazing for tomorrow. Now the part that doesn't fit in a spreadsheet, sorry Josh, my husband, I know how much he loves his spreadsheets, something that doesn't fit in a it's Centennial Stadium. 12,000 seats, purpose-built, first match ever played there is happening tomorrow. I was out there yesterday and here's the detail that struck me. The whole staff, is coming out today on Friday to do whatever needs to get done to get the building ready. Jen told us this place feels like home because team designed it, executed it, and built it themselves. And the matchup, the schedule handed us for opening day of our brand new stadium. Honestly, you could not write it better. Lindsay Heaps, Golden native, captain of the US Women's National Team. 178 caps, Olympic gold medal, the list goes on against Portland where she won two shields, took home league MVP. And here's a fun detail that gave me all the chills. She scored the lone goal in the 2017 championship final. The match winner, Lindsay Heaps personally won Portland their trophy and tomorrow she walks out against them. in evergreen your some Denver Summit green. and Lindsay isn't even the only reunion. There's six former Thorns on Denverside tomorrow. Heaps, Yasmeen Ryan, Janine Sonnis, Abby Smith, Kat Asman, and assistant coach Angela Salem, who finished her playing career in Portland. Half of Denver's spine knows what it's like to be wearing a Portland Thorns jersey. And speaking of Ryan, she has three goals, three assists, and six goal contributions across the last seven matches. This deserves its own sentence. Yasmine Ryan leads the entire NWSL in big chances created with 11. Not the team, the league. Against the club that drafted her in the Portland Thorns with Lindsay Heaps arriving to share the creative load, Ryan might quietly be the most informed player on this team right now. And one of the things that was great about being able to go and see the Summit practice at Centennial Stadium, it really made it feel real. That this was their home, this is where 12,000 friends are gonna come and cheer on their favorite team. And Lindsay looked like she had been here all season. Cushing told us the hardest part of the integration with Lindsay so far is the little bit in between, the unknown that makes good teams great. that having Lindsay in that leadership group has just been an accelerant since she arrived. her move players around in drills, watching her communication, watching how the team is responding to her, I believe him. And across from Lindsay, there is still Sophia Wilson from Windsor, Colorado, coming home with a Portland leading six goals, a team best 5.5 expected goals, she just scored the 50th goal of her career just a couple weeks ago. Got a lot of Colorado girls taking the pitch on Saturday, two national team players, and U.S. national team players. We got a lot of national team players, Janine Saunas for Canada. Anyways, two Colorado kids the U.S. women's national team the opposite sides of a stadium that didn't exist last month in the shadow of the brand new Broncos training facility. It really feels like this should be in a storybook. here's club president, Jen Millay on what tomorrow means.

Katie: It's a dream matchup and I think welcoming Sophia back, obviously having Lindsay be part of the first match here at Centennial is incredibly special and we're excited about that. we hope it's a little rivalry for sure. We have two US women's national team players going head to head here on on Saturday, so that's really exciting. so yeah, it couldn't it couldn't line up better. I think

Kate Hanson: I know, sorry folks, she is right about the tickets. Resale is the market now. If you can't get in tomorrow, Boston Legacy will be coming here in August and 10 of Denver's Final 17 are in this building. This is the start of a home stand that is going to decide the season. One of the press told Lindsay that Sofia said during the US-Japan match that Lindsay had failed to recruit her this offseason. and then told Lindsay that Sofia is a free agent again this winter. Lindsay had not heard this before.

Katie: That's news to me. well, great to know. Thank you very much. I will get working no problem. Easy for me. This is home for quite

Kate Hanson: So Sophia, Lindsay just started recruiting you at the podium, mid press conference. And fun fact, last week, Kurt Johnson said in his press conference at the club looks for players with quote, Colorado DNA. There's no more Colorado DNA on the market right now than the forward warming up on the away side tomorrow. Just file that one away for things to keep an eye on. Now for tomorrow though, Wilson is going to be a huge problem for us. She's not the project of recruiting right now. She's the problem. And the affection for how Lindsay talked about her yesterday made the threat assessment land a little bit harder. She talked about Sophia coming back after becoming a mom as a different player and a different person. Those were her words. With a sense of freedom and poise to her game right now. She pivoted to how she is a focal point who can make literally something out of nothing. And the exact phrase that she used was, that girl can destroy a team. She can stay switched on all game. And that is your Denver Summit FC captain scouting report being delivered about a friend and teammate. Cushing's version is more tactical. He put Wilson in the same category as Barbara Banda, Kununaji, Trinity Rodman. Every team has that high impact player and the job is structural. Contain her within the shape and don't multiply her moments in and around the goal because those moments, she's clinical. up. both Lindsay and Nick. 4.9 shots per 90, two on target per 90. And a team leading six goals with the 50th of her career already banked. The plan can't be to stop her touching the ball. The plan is to make every touch expensive. But first the lineup, because Cushing all but promised movement. I asked him about changes after last week's rotation because we saw a lot of movement he told the media competition for spots is critical, that players are taking their opportunities in training every week and then flat out we will probably see changes. The good news from the week 13 availability report, nobody's on it. Tosh Flint, four goals tied for second on the team, is off the report entirely after Sunday's return from her torso injury. Her first minutes since May. The only people on that injury report are Akee Garcia and Baggett who are on season ending injury. But the question isn't who's available. It's who Cushing trusts with the stadium opening, whether Flint starts, and who makes room for a number 10. That number 10 bean. Okay, you all. Home field. Denver Summit fans lead the entire NWSL in home attendance. 25,765 per match across a season split between, right now just Dick's Sporting Goods Park and Empower Field at Mile High. We still hold the league record, granted Sam Kerr's return at Gotham this last weekend against the Washington Spirit. They got close. They had 45K there. man, Washington Spirits are always in these high matches, but they're always on the road. Anyways, I digress. Portland is second in the league at 18,698. And Providence Park is a legendary hard place to play. Tomorrow, the two best supported clubs in American women's football share one 12,000 seat stadium. And every seat is ours. Fourteeners, I know you are going to be in full voice in that supporters section. Malay made a point yesterday that that in this sport, the supporters lead the atmosphere, not the control room, you know, telling people to stomp their feet or to say the charge or anything like that. The supporters lead the control room and the control room follows the supporters lead. And Denver. You 14ers you, you know what you've been doing since day one. has played in World Cup finals, in the Olympic finals, and here's what she said when I asked about establishing home field advantage in this building.

Katie: teams have to come play in altitude and obviously the heat right now, but we also have the amazing fans behind us that are loud and loud throughout the entire game. so let's make this as as impossible for for other teams to come play here and yeah we gotta take advantage of that and I think we will. I think we

Kate Hanson: Make it as impossible as possible. Altitude, heat, noise. That is the US Women's National Team captain. Here's your assignment, folks. Better do it. And she's not wrong about the heat. The forecast says 90 degrees tomorrow at the noon kickoff. I was out in that stadium yesterday, right at noon. There's no shade in the stands, so real talk from someone who will be baking right alongside you. Hydrate before you go there. You can bring an empty water bottle. has to be empty but there's plenty of water refill stations. Bring sunscreen, wear a hat. If you don't own a hat, I know where you can get a 5280 pitch one. I'll link it in the show notes and in the description. If you use the code SUMMITOPENING, you will get a special discount. So again, that special code is SUMMITOPENING. And I always have them with me at home games if you want to pick one up there. Now, these have been quite the seller. So, if you don't have yours yet, well, what are you waiting for? Pick yours up. They look sweet, right? They got the sweet 5280 on the side. Denver supporters, grab yours. Wear your hat tomorrow. Now here's what Cushing said on what the 12,000 of us can do tomorrow to ensure a Denver Summit victory.

Katie: It's critical, it's critical, but we are who we are, right? And this team wants to take the opportunity, wants to make the most of home advantage. We did it dicks, right? But we have to live in the world that we're in and we have to be realistic. We're a brand new team. We want to improve every day. That's what we're looking to do. So I'm really intrigued to see what it's like with 12,000 denier, 12,000 Summit fans. I think it's going to be rocking.

Kate Hanson: It's critical. It's his word. He used it twice. 10 of the final 17 at home, a team that is scoring sadly below its expected numbers, playing in altitude at 90 degree heat in front of the loudest per capita fan base in the league. The margins in my model between Portland winning and Denver winning, it's you. It is us crowd. The crowd is inside those margins. Yes, Denver Summit fans. You are the variable in the math tomorrow. And I mean that literally because I did all the math and this community has already proven that it shows up. Jen talked about it here. She has one more time.

Katie: Yeah, I mean Colorado has shown up huge for this club since before we even had a name, a player, you know, the community has just really rallied around what was possible for NWSL here. And, you know, the fact that we've sold out matches, you know, after the opening sort of proves that this is not like a blip moment, right? I think this community is here to stay. they feel invested in this club and you know they're willing to show up and show out for

Kate Hanson: So here's where I land. The table says Portland comfortably. in the rankings than us. But the underlying numbers, the underlying numbers, say it coin flip. Leaning Denver at home. Tomorrow, one of those numbers gets to be right. Third place arrives with a very good goalkeeper that has been hot this year. a set piece machine and. They have a homecoming superstar in Sophia Wilson. 11th place, your Denver Summit answers with the better process, the debuting of a captain, and 12,000 of you. I'll be there. Noon Mountain Time kickoff. National broadcast is on CBS and Paramount+. If you truly cannot make it, but make it. Find a way to get there. Parking is not going to be fun. I will just put that out there. It's right across from where the Broncos training stadium is. There are designated lots around. Go to the Denver Summit website and book your parking in advance or do what I'm doing and ride with a friend. And there's going to be seven of us piled into the car to get there and save on parking spaces. So check out the parking passes because it is tight. bring your empty water bottle to fill at the stadium drinking fountains. if you have a Stanley or an Alwala, you can bring that with you too, because you will be able to refill it. But no glass allowed, no water bottles that are filled, it has to be empty. And if you need to cool down, they will have misting stations located around the stadium. To continue with tomorrow, if you're going to the game, 10 a.m. is when all the parking lots open, 11 a.m. is when the 14ers are going to be doing their march into the stadium, If this is your first time going to a game this year and you're a Club 5280 member ahead of the match, get your founding member scarf at the fan zone. If you hire a season ticket holder, go to the season ticket holder gift pickup. that is also located in the fan zone. There's a lot happening tomorrow. And can't think of a better way to end a huge moment in Colorado sports history than with a win. Show up, be loud, hydrate, bring the energy, welcome Lindsay home, and let's find out which of my numbers was telling the truth. This has been a special bonus 5280 pitch episode for you. It's been my fun birthday episode. a great birthday gift to me would be if you liked, subscribed, shared this with a friend, leave a review because that is genuinely how the show grows. So best birthday present that you can give me, dear listener, is a review, a like, or a subscribe. And with that, we will see you all. tomorrow at Centennial Stadium.