Seventeen Shots, Zero Chances: Denver Summit FC's Real Problem

Katie: Six, five, five, two, zero. That is big chances created by the Denver Summit in their last five matches. Six against Houston, five against Portland, five in Washington, two against Boston, And on Wednesday at home against North Carolina, zero. Seventeen shots, twenty eight touches inside their box, six corners, and not one clear chance to score. Now on Tuesday, I sat here and I told you that patience is a strategy for a team that is creating and coming up just a little bit short. That was my whole argument. Be patient with the young nine, be patient with the finishing. The chances are there. Well, on Wednesday, the chances weren't there. That's a different problem, friends, and it's a worse one. This is the 5280 Pitch Women's Soccer at Altitude. I'm Kate Hansen. Nothing to two at Centennial Stadium. First time we've ever played the North Carolina Courage. And I'll own this right up front. I told you on Tuesday I had Denver winning this game two to one. I said it was a must-win. I said I wanted to see someone from this forward group put the ball in the back of the net. We got nothing. Zero goals, zero points, and our goal difference just flipped to the negative for the first time all season. So today, the recap, and I'm not gonna be gentle with it. Then the Utah preview because Saturday at two o'clock, we're back again, and there are some major news from the NWSL that I want to be talking about. Something huge for NWSL, the first time in NWSL history. So let's get right on into it. And of course, that means we're starting with the numbers because they are worse than the score line. Denver had 17 shots, six on target, 1.1 expected goals. North Carolina had 14 shots, 9 on target, 2.52 expected goals. They created three big chances. We created none. we had twenty-eight touches in their box to their seventeen. So we were there. We got into the areas and then nothing happened. And I wanna explain why 17 shots with zero big chances is such a strange combination because on paper, 17 sounds busy. 17 sounds like a team that is pushing. It isn't. Seventeen shots and zero big chances means every single one of those attempts was from distance or a bad angle or with a person in the way or or it was rushed. Over 90 minutes at home, you usually stumble into one good look by accident. But we didn't. And honestly, the whole night looked like it was panic. That's the word I keep coming back to. It looks like 11 players who all individually decided they had to be the one to fix it. They had to be the one to stop the scoring problems. Get the ball, shoot it, get the ball, shoot it, not work it wide, get a body to the back post, find the runner, just hit it. Tosh Flint took seven of our 17 shots. Seven. That's forty one percent of the team's entire out attacking output from one player. And I want to be careful here because that is not a criticism of Tosh. She wanted it. You could see it from anywhere in that stadium. She had a look from a sharp angle around the hour mark that went just wide. She had a turn and shoot off a short corner. Three of her seven were on target, which is more than anybody else managed. She finished with the second highest rating on the team. But 41% of your shots from one player isn't a compliment to the player. That's a diagnosis of this team. It means the ball was arriving to her in bad places and she was doing The only thing available to her. It means nobody else was in the box when she got there. here's Tosh after the match. I think it's just a key key thing is recovering week in and week out, and I think this week's a tough week. We have to keep our foot on the gas and we can't take it off. And like you said, We need to be more ruthless in front of goal, and I think for me as a player who does normally score goals, I can't drop my head, I can't let that affect. effects men or I'd rather score, rather score after the week, but I can't let that affect me because I'll You can tell by her answer that the finishing was on her mind. That is a player who's already been thinking about the scoring problems. And then the two goals for the courage, which I have to be fair here, neither one of them was a defensive collapse. A minute into the second half, Ava Gaetino gets tangled up with Erica Parkinson in the box. Unfortunately, it's a penalty. Riley Jackson buries it in the forty eighth. Cool as a cucumber. And then 81st. North Carolina switches the field in transition. A cross comes in. Allie Schlegel, who is a Colorado native, gets there ahead of Jeanine Saunis. I do have to say, congrats to Allie Schlegel, because her mom and her grandma were there, she ran right over to them after scoring and it was a really sweet moment. But Unfortunately, she doesn't play for the Denver Summit, so I can't be too rah-rah with it. But she got past Janine Saunis, first effort, just barely squeezes past Abby Smith, and the ball was barely loose. Schleigel continues her run and just taps it in. And Allie is from, like I said, the Denver area. She's from Inglewood. And kid from down the road came to our new building and put the game away. Sophia Wilson also got a goal here back in July. Colorado kids, I tell ya, they just keep on showing up to beat us at home. And I don't love that pattern. Now, here is the one thing that I sat down and I worked out on Thursday after the match, and I didn't enjoy finding it. Debora has not scored a goal from open play since July 18th. Not since Natalie Means came off the bench and won the Portland game. That is three matches, folks. 18 days to Wednesday night, 20 days to right now. And I know what some of you are going to say. Sonna scored against Boston on the PK. She did, and the seventy fifth minute she had that that penalty spot after Tosh Flint got pushed over in the box. But take away one go one foul in the eighteen yard box, and Denver has gone three full games without producing a goal from the run of play. Twenty days. Zero and I keep coming back to it. That is a finishing problem and the creation problem sitting on top of each other. And it's the reason I can't tell you that this was just a bad night. Here's Nick Cushing after the match, and this is about as blunt as he's been all season. I think it's the story of our season really that we didn't get ahead and then... opinion a soft penalty and then all of a sudden you're giving away team something to hang on to they play on the counter-attack and they hit us on the counter-attack yeah, that is the story of our season. he said a version of that after Seattle, after Utah, after Houston, after Washington, and then later in the same press conference, he said he really believes that this team is so, so close. He believed it. and I believe that he means it. I think close has to eventually turn into a goal. He also called the penalty soft. And there's a lot of people in the comment section that are saying, well, the refs heard us that game, the officiating was terrible. I'm gonna say the same thing that I say to my daughters. You can't control the refs. Yes, there were some real iffy calls. There was the one against Io that did not get called. I mean, there's there's been it feels like the Denver Summit has just been on the wrong side of the officiating crew since the break. We we just cannot catch a break. But he did say something that I did not know. Pro came to the club and apologized for the penalty against the Portland game a few weeks ago. That's the referee's own organization admitting that they got one wrong against Denver. He brought up the Boston goal too, the one off the goalkeeper's punt, and he said, You won't see that many times in this league. And the word he keeps using is margins. And I think it's a a very perfect word. A coach who is raising three different officiating decisions in one press conference is carrying something, but he's not wrong about the fact that pro should have apologized. I mean, they did. He went on a little bit further on Thursday's practice, and this is where he and I disagree just a little bit. His argument is about the moments and the margins. if Denver goes up one nothing against North Carolina and they don't concede right after they score against Houston, he thinks that the points look completely different. He pointed at the Boston goal, conceded off the keeper's punt, and he said They could have been up three nothing at that point. And if you're up three, that goal doesn't hurt you the same way. His line was that professional sport has margins this small, and if you stack the odds in your favor, the luck tends to fall in your favor. And look, I don't think that he's wrong about Boston. Twenty-eight touches in North Carolina's box on Wednesday says the same thing. But luck is not a variable when you're creating and not converting. That's the story of April, May, and June for this team. And he was right about it every time he said it. Zero big chances isn't luck. You cannot get unlucky with a chance that you never made. And that's why I can't file Wednesday after under just a the bad breaks column. Now let's look at the full season picture because this is the part that I think stings a bit. We're at five wins, five draws, and seven losses. Twenty points from 17 matches. That's 1.18 points per game. Folks, it's not a playoff number. Our goal difference went from plus one to minus one on Wednesday. That is the first time it's been negative all year. We're 11th, level points with Boston, who has played one more game than us. And here's the one that I want you all to sit with. on the season, Denver has scored twenty two goals from twenty six point seven nine expected goals. That's four point seven nine goals we should have scored and didn't. Almost five goals left on the table. In the league in a league that is this tight, five goals is the difference between 11th and 6th. Our big chance conversion for the season is 30.6%. Didn't move on Wednesday because you can't miss chances that you've never created. All right. Doom and gloom section of the podcast is over. I do want to talk about some of the positive things. First of all, thank you to everyone that's listening and sharing the show. We've been getting a t a massive boost in downloads. So you know what you do when you leave a review, you share it, you follow, subscribe. You're helping the algorithms tell more people that women's sports matter. And it's pushing it out to more listeners. So thank you for leaving reviews, subscribing, all the things. Let's talk about the good that we saw on the field on Wednesday. IOK was the best thing on the field for the Denver Summit, in my opinion, on Wednesday night. She played like she was personally offended by the score line in everything, defending, carrying, getting forward. She had that opportunity for that penalty, which I think should have been called, but she got pushed from behind and the contact ended up just outside the box. Nothing came from it, unfortunately. But she was in a position to win it because she was the one making the runs. Tosh was asked about her after the game, and this was the warmest thing anybody said all night. on the pitch is a fast, strong, not only a defending player, but she's gets on the attack week in, week out, and I think she's building a game and she's growing massively as a player. The thing about Io, she's not only a defending player, she gets forward every single week. And she's been doing it without much to run on to. I think that Io has grown a lot this season already and it's been really exciting to see her continue to find her stride from that right back position. IO to me was the standout player of the match. Another standout player, our friend Abby Smith. Seven saves, highest rating on the team. Again, I've said this so many times this season that I feel like I'm a bit of a broken record, but our goalkeeper keeps being the reason that a bad night isn't a worse one. Janine Saunis had 87 touches, most of anybody on the field, and the second best rating on the team. She's still doing everything. And Allie Brazer came on for the last thirty six minutes and gave the match a pulse that it really did not have before she got there. The first half of the match didn't feel like Denver Summit football. It was stale, it was boring, there was a lot of miss missed passes. The p typically we own the possession. We didn't own the possession in the first half of the game. it was NC that was winning the possession percentages. It felt like a really weird first half. When Allie Brazer came on in the second half, it felt like there was a jolt that was given to the team. That wasn't there. One shot on target and by expected goals she generated as much in thirty six minutes as anybody who started. And that's a pattern with Allie. She scored four minutes after coming on in Louisville. She's the one Natalie Means was looking for at the back post on Natalie Means intentional goal, or cross to Allie. But it Natalie put it in. Congrats to Natalie Natalie on her first goal. But that she was at the other end, Allie was from that cross from Natalie. and at some point somebody has to ask what Ally Brazer does With sixty minutes in a match. And one more roster note. Carson Pickett, Gemma Bonner, all on the bench. I talked about Gemma's signing in the Tuesday episode, so I won't go over it again, but she has now been in the building since the first of August. Hasn't played yet, but she was on the bench. I feel like we're getting close to seeing Gemma get into a game. And I think that too, a lot of it is learning the philosophies of this team. And congratulations to Delaney Sheehan. She made her hundredth NWSL regular season appearance on Wednesday. Again, congratulations to her, honestly. That is a career milestone. And it deserved a much better night than what happened on Wednesday. how great would it have been if she had her hundredth cap and would have gotten a W as well. So let's talk about the elephant in the room. Lindsay Heaps. we I got there before kickoff. I typically try and arrive about an hour and a half early, but we did have date night. So I was a little bit later. I got there 30 minutes before kickoff. And that's when we got our handy dandy release of who the starters were. And it if you see here, she literally was a late scratch. She was in the starting eleven. And then she wasn't. And Cushing said after the match that she had a small issue, a little bit of swelling. And the teen doctor pulled her out after she arrived at the performance center before the match. Thursday at practice, we got a little bit more answers. And honestly, it it's way better news than I expected. So Cushing said that it is her knee. It's a small issue, and she's managing some swelling. They're evaluating her day to day and it came up late in the day on Wednesday. They found it in on Wednesday afternoon, just shortly before kickoff. Good news is she was out at training on Thursday on the field while the team worked, and she was at all the team meetings, smiling, those are his words, enthusiastic. When asked if there's any concerns about this being a long term or serious injury, he gave us good news. She has a small issue with her knee that she's just managing some swelling. So she'll be, like I say, she'll be examined day to day. She's out smiling, enthusiastic. So we're pleased. Day to day. That's genuinely all anybody has right now, including him. And I'd rather he say that than guess, or say that she's gonna be week to week or month to month. You know, that's day to day is much better news. So please do not go on the internet this weekend and decide that you know what's wrong with Lindsay Heapsney. Nobody does yet. Was it a shock? Absolutely. You find out Thirty minutes before kickoff that the captain of the US women's national team and your Denver summit isn't playing after hearing nothing about any potential injury all week long, that definitely changes your plan. But I'm not letting Lindsay's injury be the reason why we had the performance on the field that we did. Because this team played three months without Lindsay Heaps. Three months. She didn't play a competitive minute for this club until July eighteenth. Before that, we went at Gotham, Drew in Orlando, beat Orlando three at home, one at Louisville, took 11 points off eight road games at As an expansion team, All that happened with Lindsay Heaps being away from this team. We found ways, we had patterns, we had an identity. So when she comes out of a lineup and the team looks like they've never met before, poor passing, hesitation at the top of the box, indecision on the final ball, that isn't a Lindsay Heaps problem. That is a we stopped having a plan that doesn't run through one player problem. And that should worry you more than the knee injury does. Tosh again, she spoke with media after the game and she handled the question exactly right. She said a last minute change to have Lindsay not on the team was tough for them, but that they've got a team that can come together and keep building on what they've been building. I believe she means it. Wednesday just didn't look like it. And here's the part of Thursday's post practice press conference That I keep thinking about. Cushing said Lindsay is still the captain on match day plus one. Off the field, in meetings, watching the game, communicating. He said that she is a powerful person to have in the room. Her standards are really high. He said her expectations of the individuals, the team, the coaching staff, the whole organization is sky high, which is a lovely thing to say about your captain. It's also, if you listen to it a certain way, a coach telling you that the standards in the building come from a player who wasn't on the field on Wednesday. Okay, and this is the part of the Wednesday night that I don't think got enough attention that might be the most important thing that Nick Cushing has said all season. He was asked about the roster, and he told the room to go back and read between the lines of what he said after the Washington game. There are two ways that you can accelerate the progress of a team. That is a really significant one and we're really lucky that the window is open. The one thing I can say and the one thing I will say is I'm really content with the way that the club works. From ownership right the way through front office, GM, that there is a real determination. It's difficult. It's so difficult to try and bring in players of the level that we want to bring in. We are working, really working to try and make it happen. And I'm confident that we will. So let me translate. Two ways to accelerate a team, develop the players you already have, or go buy better ones. He just told you the second one is on the table, that the window is open, that ownership and the front office and Kurt Johnson are all pushing, and that bringing in players at the level Denver wants to is hard, but it's gonna happen. Gemma Bonner came in on that 1st of August. So that's already started. And here's why this changes how I read the last three weeks. On Monday, Cushing said he didn't need to see anything more from Alyssa Cussler or Olivia Thomas in training. That patience was in the plan, and that one goal changes everything for a young number nine. Then Wednesday, he says he's working the window and he's confident. Those two things can both be true, but Put together they read a little bit differently, right? So patience with the young players you have and a phone that's ringing about the ones that you don't. I'm not gonna pretend like I know who. I don't. Nobody outside that building does. But if you've been frustrated watching this team create and not finish, the head coach is telling you he's frustrated too. And that he's doing something about it that doesn't involve waiting. Up next is another match. Saturday, two o'clock, Centennial Stadium. Utah Royals, it's gonna be on Ion. It is the third home game this week. It's gonna be a hot one again. So plan accordingly with the hats and the sunscreen and the water bottles. Bring more than you think you need. This is the second leg of the Continental Divide Rivalry. Utah won the first one, two to one back in May, out in Utah And the expected goals in that match 1-5-6. That was a close game. This one's harder. Utah is coming in third in the table on 33 points. They put five past Portland on Sunday. They won 4-1 at North Carolina back in July. Nine points from their last five. We've got five from ours. But here's the thing I found in the numbers that I think gives us a real shot. So stay with me, because I know that I have been super homer as of late. I r you guys, I really thought that it was seven points was possible for this week. I thought maybe a draw with Utah, and I really believe that NC and Boston were games that we should have won. So don't call me Homer just yet. Utah is running way ahead of itself. They're third on points, but they're sixth in the league on expected goal difference. Their goal difference is five and a half goals better than their underlying numbers say. We, Denver Summit, are the opposite. 11th in points, 10th unexpected goal difference, running almost two goals behind what we should have. So on process, this is a much closer game than third verse eleventh sounds, which if you've been with me for a while, is exactly what I told you before the Portland game. And guess who won that one? Denver Summit. Now here's the part that I can't spin. Denver is worse at home than on the road. Eight home matches, two wins, three draws, three losses. Goal difference minus three, one point one two points per game. Nine away matches, three wins, two draws, four losses, goal difference plus two. One point two points per game. We're better on the road. In year one at altitude, in front of the loudest fan base in the league, I believe. I've been saying since July that something happens to this team when they walk into their own building. And seventeen matches in, the numbers also say it. And Utah does not care where they're put where they play. Their away wet record is four wins, three draws, two losses, plus six. It's identical to their home record. Venue is not going to be the difference maker on Saturday. Two names to be on the lookout for for this Utah match. If you're watching it, if you are going to the game, Chloe Lacasse, six goals, seven assists, and she has affected the score line in 56% of her appearances this season. Mina Tanaka, five and four, fifty three percent. Utah has two players who can change games in more than half of the matches that they play in. Our best is co-captain Janine Sanis, who again is a defender, at thirty eight percent. And three of her seven goals are from the penalty shot. the one that nobody is talking about is Kiana Palacios. Her output has gone from zero point three to zero point eight five over the last five matches. Right now she is the sharpest riser in this entire fix and she scored in the first meeting between both of these clubs. So Tanaka, meanwhile, has gone the other way. We spend ninety minutes locked onto Tanaka and forget about Palacios. That is exactly how we get punished. And then the n the number that is the whole season in one line, Denver has created forty-nine big chances this year. Denver has created forty-six. That's nearly identical. Denver has converted thirty-one percent of them. Utah has converted fifty-four percent. That is a twenty three point gap on the same amount of creation. And it's worth about nine goals. And it's basically the entire difference between third place and eleventh place. On Thursday after practice, Cushing was asked about what he wants to see from this group on Saturday. He said the focus is to be more ruthless, be clinical, take advantage of being on top and in control, and really kill off teams. Ruthless. That's the word he used. Also, the exact word that Tosh Blint used in that press conference on Wednesday night, about eighteen hours earlier, unprompted, and she stopped mid sentence to make sure that she said it right. When your head coach and one of your star scorers independently reach for the same word That isn't a talking point. That's a group that has diagnosed itself. They know nobody in that building needs to tell them what the problem is. One more thing on the on the lineup. Cushing said Wednesday night that with three games in seven days, it's tough to run the same eleven. And that there will be changes again going into Utah. So don't be surprised by the team sheet on Saturday. He also named Yuna McCormick, Yazuki Yamamoto, Ali Brazer, Carson Pickett, and Meg Reed as players pushing real hard to get more minutes. So those are the people that he's choosing from to fill out the rest of that starting eleven. So what do I think happens on Saturday? Obviously I got it wrong on Sunday and Wednesday. So take this for what it's worth. But I think we get a goal. I think somebody in the in that front group finally breaks through at home, and I think this one ends 2 2. I'd love to be wrong in the other direction this time. I'd love to be wrong and have them win. But I'm gonna go for the two two. draw at home. We finally get out of that scoring drought and it lights a fire up under this team. What I would love to see is a corner that scares somebody. That's it. We we've been getting so many opportunities from the corner and nothing. I I think that's my whole ask. Deliver one dead ball to the near post with conviction and see what happens. All right, last thing for today's episode, and this one's big. So Jessica Berman gave her midseason State of the League this week, and the NWSL confirmed that the twenty twenty seven schedule is gonna be early. It is the biggest change to the shape of a season this league has ever made. Mark your calendars, folks. Next season starts February eleventh. Not March. February. We started this year on March thirteenth, so that is a full 30 days earlier, and it's the earliest start in league history by more than a month. And here's the part that tells you what this league thinks of itself right now. Opening night is at BMO Stadium in Los Angeles. Three days later, about seven miles across town at SoFi, they're playing the Super Bowl. ABC and ESPN carrying both games. The league is deliberately parking its opener inside the biggest weekend on the American sports calendar. The bold strategy cotton. I it Why so early? Well, it's because of the World Cup in Brazil. There's a seven-week pause. So if you felt like the June break was long, well, be ready. It's gonna be even longer this next year. June 7th through July 25th. It's gonna be covering the mandated player break and the FIFA Women's World Cup Tournament. Still a full 30-game schedule. Regular season ends October 31st, playoffs November 5th, Championship November 20th. Now the cost. Our championship this year is November twenty first. Players report to camp in early January. That's about six and a half weeks of off season. It is the shortest off season in league history. So three things for the Denver Summit. Number one, this club's first ever off season is now the shortest anybody's ever had. Every roster decision, every signing, all the recovery from an expansion year, it's all consolidated into six weeks. Number two, if the United States and Canada both qualify, they must be honest, they will. We will lose our co captains of Lindsay Heaps and Janine Saunas for a good chunk of next summer. That's a planning problem. Good thing we have Iron Woman Kaylee Kurtz as our third captain, but that is something that the front office needs to be working on right now. And three, if nobody's mentioned, February soccer in Colorado. our first home match next season is going to be played in weather this league has never had to really think about. Nobody has scouted that yet. I think it has an advantage. So I mean, February is typically, typically our snowiest month here in Colorado. Hopefully we start getting some moisture. So that the reservoirs fill and all that again, but now we kind of am like, I don't know if I wanted to to get a ton of moisture in February because we're gonna have our Denver Summit games. And one more number because this one made me happy. League average attendance numbers for this season is eleven thousand one hundred and seventy four per match. That is the second highest in league history Behind twenty twenty four. Berman thinks that they will beat those average attendance numbers with a strong second half. This league is growing and it means that more people want to see women's sports. Everyone watches women's sports. All right, that is the show Saturday at two o'clock, Centennial Stadium, Utah Royals, bring get your parking in advance. Bring your water bottles, plural, and be loud early. If you want some of the secret tips for stadium, first so you're prepared for the stadium, go back, listen to a previous episode. I've given a lot of tips on being prepared for the stadium. There isn't shade, you know, just be prepared. This team needs you to be there and be there for them. Be loud, be early. This team needs it more at home than anywhere else. And the numbers prove it. If you enjoyed today's episode, please hit subscribe, leave a review, like it, share it, all the things because it is the single best thing you can do for independent podcasts to help them grow. And if you leave a review, if you send me an email, I will be on the end of those reading every single one. So the newsletter goes out every Tuesday. You can sign up at the 5280pitch.com. The merch store is up, it's open. There is a lot of fun merch on the website that you can show your support for women's soccer at Altitude and help support the show. If want to follow me on the socials, I'm on Instagram, Threads, Facebook at the 5280 Pitch. Tell me I'm wrong about the corners. if you have a different opinion, let me know. I would love to have some more conversations about the Denver Summit. So I'm Kate Hansen. has been the 5280 Pitch Women's Soccer at Altitude. We'll see you after the game on Saturday in the next episode.