"We Probably Have to Win Out" Denver Summit Playoff Hopes After a 4-1 Loss in KC

Katie Brinkley: 22 minutes. That's how long it took for everything to fall apart on Saturday. In the 35th minute, Abby Smith blocked a Dabina penalty, and we were still up, 1-0 in Kansas City, in the one building in this league that nobody has won in all year. And in the 22 minutes after that save, Kansas City scored three straight goals. Four minutes to tie it, eight more to go ahead, and ten more to make it three one. That save should have been the moment that lifted us. And folks, I think it lit a fire under the other team instead. Welcome back to the 5280 pitch, women's soccer at altitude. I'm Kate Hansen. so in the last episode, I said 3-1 Summit. Well the final was 4-1, and it was the other way. I had the one right. It just belonged to us, not them. I also picked the three goal scorers. I said Janine, Lindsay, and Yaz. And Lindsay scored, so I got one of the three, but that's about where my luck ran out. And my keys to the game, folks, key number one was own the start of the second half. I told you that first 15 minutes after halftime was our window because we lead the league in goals in that stretch. Well, Kansas scored Both goals right inside the window, I said, was ours. Key number two was to put the ball on target. I said that on the road we'd been averaging about three shots on target in the game. And we needed a lot more than three if we wanted to be the first team to win in that building. Well, all we had was three. And my final key to the game was that if we got up, the game ends there. And again, we went up in the 13th minute. We led for 26 minutes, and the game very much did not end there. So my keys to the game, I was 0 for 3. I'll have some new ones later in today's episode for when we face Chicago. I was disappointed on Saturday. And I'm still disappointed today. And the one question I keep coming back to, the one I I bet a lot of you are asking as well, is honestly it's really simple. What happened? Because for 30 minutes we were the better team in that building. And then all of a sudden, we weren't. So here's what we got on the agenda today because I want to start with the table because the math it changed a lot this weekend and unfortunately it has not changed in our favor. Then we're gonna walk through what happened on Saturday from that first half hour to the penalty save to the high press, which I love, and which has also been Getting us. I've got a player comparison I've been digging into And we're going to talk about Chicago on Sunday and the international break because that's coming up right after. And last but not least, there's been some changes to the NWSL, so we are going to talk about that as well. But first things first, let's start with the table because Math again, yay. We're sit we're still sitting at 10th with 35 points. Nine wins, nine losses, eight draws. Our goal difference is now plus five. It was plus eight going into Saturday. And a 4-1 loss takes three right off the top, unfortunately. And here's what happened around us. Kansas City went to 41 and moved up to seventh place. On Tuesday, I told you all to cheer for Boston on Friday night. Well, Seattle beat Boston, so Seattle is now eighth with 40. And North Carolina went ahead and jumped us too. They're now ninth with 39. So here's the gap. We are four back of North Carolina, five back of Seattle, and six back of Kansas City. And that eighth spot, that last playoff spot, is sitting at 40 points right now. We have four games left, and that's twelve points on the table, Which means the most we can finish with this season is forty-seven. And our road recor record is now three wins, six losses, and four draws, with two of those last four games on the road. Here's the part that got me. On Tuesday, if you listen to that episode, I played you Nick's number from the start of the year. He said thirty-nine to forty-one goals is what it takes to get that last playoff spot. We have 42 goals with four games to play, and we're sitting in tenth. So the goals were never the problem. We've given up 37, and Saturday added four more to that pile. Now, to get into the top eight, we don't just have to catch one team anymore. We have to finish ahead of two teams that are above us right now. And three of those teams, Kansas City, Seattle, and North Carolina, are all within six points of us. So if we win all four, we get to forty-seven. Kansas City only needs six more points to get there. Seattle needs seven and North Carolina needs eight. So basically we need to win out and we need a little help too. So here's the schedule. Sunday at Chicago, which we will talk about later. Saturday, October 17th at home against Angel City. Saturday, October 24th, against Racing Louisville. And then we close out the regular season on Sunday, November 1st at North Carolina. So our last game of the year could be a six-pointer against a team that we are chasing. Go check out the 5280 playoff tracker at 5280pitch.com. It's a lot of fun. I built it so that you can run it every single game that affects the Denver Summit and ev every single weekend. And I know that the math looks rough right now. It because it is rough, but it's not over. Not yet. So let's talk about what happened on Saturday. I want to start with the good because there was good. For the first 25 minutes, maybe even 30 minutes, we were in control of this game. And that's not just me being a homer. Nick said it after the game, and Janine said it too. Nick said we kept the game compact, we kept it short, and we had coverage all over the pitch. Blocking those transition runs and making sure we had cover in behind. Janine, she had a chance early, and she said herself after the game that it was one that she needed to score on. Unfortunately, it didn't go in. And then in the 13th minute, Lindsay Heaps puts us up, 1-0. That is her third goal the season. And honestly, Lindsay was our attack on Saturday. We took seven shots all game, and Lindsay took four of them. Our expected goals for the whole match, brace yourself, folks, was 0.54. Lindsay's shots alone were 0.39 of that. So that is 72% of our expected goals coming from one player. And everyone else combined for 0.15. So we're up, 1-0, in the building that nobody wins in. And if you woke up early and were watching that 1030 kickoff with your morning coffee, it looked like the plan was working. It looked like the team that we saw against Seattle had made the trip. And I want you to hold on to this next number because it tells you something about this whole season. We've given up 37 goals in 26 games. Only four of them have come in the first 30 minutes of a match. Four. So 33 of the 37 have come after the 30th minute. We defend beautifully for half an hour. And we did it again on Saturday. And fun fact, but well actually it's not a fun fact. Our our single worst window all season, the one where we've given up the most goals, is the thirty-first minute through the forty-fifth. Nine goals in that stretch. Kansas City tied it up in the 39th minute. So let's talk about the penalty, because I thought that that penalty was gonna be a momentum shifter. So the 35th minute Dabina steps up and Abby Smith blocks it. She had an incredible save. And the penalty, even if you were watching on the broadcast, the the broadcast team was unsure if it was gonna hold up because it was that questionable. It went to VAR, it held up, and then Abby blocked it. And folks, that should have been our moment. That is the kind of save that fires up a whole team. You just survived a penalty on the road and you're still up 1-0. And instead, I think that that save did more for Kansas City than it did for us. They didn't sag after it, they actually came back harder. Four minutes later, Haley Hopkins scores with Michelle Cooper on the assist, and Cooper was a problem for us all day long. She created five chances, the most of anybody on the field. And Nick talked about exactly this stretch. he's got a great phrase for what Kansas City does to you. So listen to this one.

Katie: But against this team, I said at half time, first 30 minutes, first 25 minutes, I thought we controlled the game, kept the game compact, kept the game short, with the ball, had coverage all over the pitch, blocking transition runs, making sure that we had cover in behind. And the way that KC plays. They want to try and get you in the spin dryer. And the last 15 minutes of the of the first half, we were in that, right? You could see no composure on clearances, no passes put together so that we can almost get control of the game and stop those transition moments ha happening frequently. and I think one moment turns it to two-one, one moment turns it to to to three-one.

Katie Brinkley: The spin dryer. I love that. And it's i I also hate it because it's exactly right. Kansas City wants the game chaotic. So for the first 25 minutes, we kept it short, we kept it compact, and then we had the ball, and then the last 15 minutes of the half, there was no composure on clearances. We couldn't string passes together, and all of a sudden, we were right in it. They had us right where they wanted us. And here's the number. I will build this whole game around. Kansas City's first two goals were eight minutes apart. The 39th and the 47th minute. And you might say, Well, what there was halftime. And yet yes, halftime was sitting right in the middle. Normally, when we've given up two goals in the game this season, those goals come about 33 minutes apart. We usually have time to answer. On Saturday, we didn't. That second goal, the one in the forty-seventh minute, was was Hopkins once again with no assist. Janine was asked about it after the game, and she said she doesn't actually know. What went wrong yet? Again, this was right after the game. there has been time that has elapsed. But at the time of the press conference, she thought it was pretty clear that the ball was going to roll through and she assumed it was just a min miscommunication. Here is more of what she said about that stretch.

Katie: I mean, I think that there's just times where we're we're own we're our own worst enemy and we just put ourselves in positions where we make things really difficult on ourselves. and obviously I think the game plan was clear. Like we were very aware of the threats that they pose. And I thought in the first twenty, twenty-five minutes, maybe even thirty minutes, we really played our game and and were you know, passing through them and had some good moments and obviously I have a chance early on that I need to score and then Lindsay scores and it's good, but in a place like this against a team like this, momentum can can shift very quickly and it did and thought we did a good job kind of weathering the storm there at the beginning at the end of the first half. and then to give up a goal that early in the second half, I think really put us on our heels.

Katie Brinkley: Yeah, our own worst enemy. And right before that answer, Janine also said that she was probably a bit too emotional to have a helpful view On how it happened. Then in the 57th minute, Chowinga feeds Hopkins, and that is the hat trick, folks. 3-1. And Nick walked through that goal step by step. I think this is the most useful thing he said throughout that whole postgame press conference.

Katie: And I think the third goal is a great example of the margins, right? Really good play. We get into their box. We have two chances. And when the ball breaks from their six yard box, we're sleepy and not flo focused. And before you know it, Chowinga outruns. I think there's a moment to block there. You can block Chowinga's run, which delays, which then means Ava and KK can can mop it up and can start to play with the coverage in behind. We don't do that, she gets a clear run and she showed her quality, showed her pace and power.

Katie Brinkley: So think about that. We had two chances in their box. The ball breaks out of their six-yard box, and one missed block later, Chewinga has a clear run at goal, and that's how thin the margins are against this team. Huge credit to Haley Hopkins. She scored three goals in 18 minutes. She had three shots on target all day, and all three of them went in. She came in to Saturday with five goals on the season, and she left that match with eight. And then in the 76th minute, Chewinga gets a goal of her own, makes it 4-1. That makes it 7-1 on aggregate against Kansas City this season. we lost 0-3 at home in July, and then 4-1 on Saturday. So here's where I land on what happened. I like the high press. I like I've liked it all season. It's fun to watch, but on Saturday, the high press is what got us. Chewinga speed is just too much. When we face teams that have that elite sprinter, when we press and it breaks, man, those those strikers are gone. And Nick said it himself after the game. Kansas City has Cooper and Chewinga and he called them probably the best two transition wingers in the league. Ayo Ake has the legs to run with Cholinga, and Ayo was on the field for the first three goals. So even with Ayo out there, we were too far out of position to recover. now Janine got asked about exactly this. Were Ava and KK getting left on an island? And Janine pushed back a little. And I think you should hear her side.

Katie: Yeah, I mean, I think if watch the game back, there's not many times where Io and I were both high. I think that we we talked about in in the pre-match having one of our fullbacks or a six stay a little bit deeper. And for the most part I thought that that was done relatively well. I think there were, you know, a couple of times where when someone like Chewinga gets a touch on the ball and is in behind, there's not really much that anyone can do except for try and, you know, cover the goal. So it's hard for me to think about those moments right now without watching it back. but to answer your question, yes, there was a very clear intention to hold another number. deeper.

Katie Brinkley: So the plan was there. They talked about it before the match, keep one of the fullbacks or a six a little deeper so that the center backs aren't alone. and I believe her, but you gotta look at what happened. We had 61% of the ball. We attempted 500 passes and completed 82.8% of them. And we took seven shots. Kansas City attempted 317 passes and completed 74.4% of them. And honestly, they did not care one bit. They took 22 shots with 10 on target. They had 35 touches in our box, and we had 20 in theirs. Their expected goals was 3.09. Ours was 0.54. and look at where our balls actually went. KK had 95 touches, the most on the field. Janine had 85, Ava had 82. So three of our defenders had 38.6% of our touches. And Abby had 70 touches. So we had the ball, folks. We just had it in places that didn't hurt Kansas City. And every time we lost it higher up the field, we were standing in the wrong spot. And Chewinga Cooper, they were already gone. So is the answer to stop pressing? I don't think so. I don't want Nick and the summit to throw away the thing that makes this team so fun to watch. But I do wonder if there's a version where we pick our moments against a team that's built to punish exactly this type of play. That's the question that I'm still sitting with. One more thing before we move on. Abby made six saves, and one of them was that penalty. She also had nine recoveries, most on our team. So without Abby, you guys, this score line is a lot worse. I want to talk about the defensive line a little bit deeper just for a moment. Because this is one something that I've been digging into since Saturday. There's been a lot of comments over on the socials about Ava Gaetino getting the start over Meg Reed. So I was looking into the numbers between these two players, and here's the thing I didn't realize until I pulled the numbers. So through twenty-six matches, Ava has 17 starts, Meg has nine. has been getting those number one minutes. She's had her a couple injuries where sh she's ended up missing time. She came off in the sixteenth minute back in August. Meg came on for her and then Ava missed the next three games entirely, where Meg ended up starting those games. Since then, Ava has started the last two, and Meg was an unused sub both times, including Saturday. So let's look at how they've done comparatively. Per 90 minutes, they are very different players. Ava intercepts the ball more than twice as often, 1.9 per 90 to Meg's 0.84, but Meg is cleaner. Her pass accuracy is 88.8% compared to Ava's 84.4%. And Ava's been getting beat to where she's had to make the foul. Ava picks up a yellow about once every four full games where Meg is closer to once every nine and a half. And here's one thing that jumped off the page. We have five clean sheets this season. Four of them came with Meg starting. When Meg starts We give up 1.22 goals a game. When Ava starts, it's 1.53. Now, I want to be careful here. Nine starts is a small sample, and goals against measures the whole team, not just one player. So that is not proof of anything. But I wanted to check the obvious pushback. Maybe Meg just got the easier games. Nope. The teams that Meg started against averaged 39.7 points in the table. Ava's games averaged 36.9. So Meg actually got the tougher schedule that included Gotham twice. So I'm not saying that Ava cost us the game on Saturday. I watched the game and there's plenty of blame to go around on those goals. But with four must-win games left. And a defense that keeps breaking after the 30-minute mark. I want to know how Nick is thinking about that spot for the remainder of the inaugural 2026 season. Which brings us to Sunday. Nick was asked how he's managing this stretch, and his answer is really the whole story of how this season finishes. Here he is.

Katie: Being honest and owning it in the sense of trying to get in the playoffs and have the having the objective of getting in, you have to be honest and you have to be humble and you have to be curious to understand why. And I think in the long term, you have to use it as lessons, learn lessons. Ultimately, you know, these teams exist, right? The teams that play with pace and power and in transition and we have to deal with it. So in the evolution of us, we definitely will, but in the short term, it we have to adapt. Like you say, now I think we probably have to win out. starting with next week.

Katie Brinkley: Starting with Sunday, that's Chicago. And that's the first of four games that we basically have to win. So let's talk about the stars. Play Sunday, October 4th at 2 p.m. Mountain Time in Chicago. It's on CBS Sports Network and the spot Denver 3. Here's where Chicago is, folks. They're a last in the league, sixteenth, with only seventeen points. They have five wins, nineteen losses, and two draws. They've scored fifteen goals all season. The fewest in the league, and they've given up sixty, the most in the league. At home, they're four wins, seven losses, and one draw. Honestly, I'm sure if any of you Summit fans want to make a trip out to Chicago, you can fill that Chicago stadium with Summit Green. And the summit probably would love to have some road support, so maybe check into flights after you're done listening to this episode and go cheer on the Denver Summit in Chicago. Anyways, they've also changed coast coaches this year. Karina Baez has been the interim head coach since August 12th. We have already seen them once. We played them August 29th at Centennial, where we beat them 6'1. That was the night that MK scored, and it was Tasha's last goal before her rocket against Seattle. And since that game. Chicago has lost 6-0 at home to North Carolina, drawn 1-1 at Portland, lost 3-0 at home to Washington, So yes, on paper, this is the game on our schedule that we should win. And honestly, I'm glad it's the next one. After what happened on Saturday, we need a game where we can get our rhythm back and put some goals on the board, get our confidence up, and our goal difference could use the help too. But here's my worry. And I think you guys know where I'm gonna go with this. we are three wins, six losses, and four draws on the road this year. And we just lost a game where we led on the road. Chicago doesn't need to be good for 90 minutes to hurt us. They just need one transition moment. So the lesson from Kansas City has to make the trip to Chicago. Also, fun fact, Julia Grosso plays on in Chicago's midfield and she's on the Canadian roster for October, so on Sunday, she's the opponent for Janine and Emma, and then the next week she is their teammate. so this game is one that we have to take, folks. She is their teammate. I'm gonna get more into that in just a minute, but This is a game we have to take, and there are no excuses. Janine said it after the game: there is no room for error now, and we have to be at our absolute best for all four of these games. She also said she doesn't want to be relying on other teams' results. I don't either, but the only part we can control starts Sunday in Chicago. So about the international break, because after Chicago, we get a little bit of a breather. We don't play again until October 17th. That's 13 days between games. But three of our players won't be resting. Janine, Emma Reagan, and Yuzu are all headed to their national teams. So let's start with Canada. Janine and Emma are both on Casey Stoney's 24 player roster. Canada plays Denmark twice, October 9th in Montreal and October 12th in Toronto. Canada is ranked 9th in the world and Denmark is ranked 12th. And these aren't just friendlies. Canada Soccer called this their final preparation window before World Cup and Olympic qualifying in November. Those qualifiers decide spots for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil 2028 Olympics in LA. So this camp is about getting ready for the games that really count. Then there's Yuzu, the Japan Football Association, named her to Japan's 23 player squad for the trip to Europe. Japan plays Haiti in France on october ninth and then Germany in Germany on october thirteenth. So if you're missing the NWSL for that break, you're not gonna be without soccer entirely. You can still watch some of your favorite Denver Summit players play for their national team. So be sure to check out The TV listings and see if you can catch one of their games. Cheer for all three of them and send some extra love to them on social. And we'll all be hoping everybody comes back healthy for that next Denver Summit game against Angel City, which again Angel City sits above us, so it's going to be a very important game. Okay, one more thing before we wrap up. We have a new team in the league. Well, A new name anyway. On Monday, Atlanta's NWSL Expansion Club announced its name. They will be Atlanta City F C and They'll be the NWSL's 17th team and they'll start playing in March of 2028 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Their crest is pretty cool, it's a Phoenix, and their colors are red and peach. Their president of soccer says they already have more than 5,000 season ticket deposits, which, you know, it's not bad. No Denver Summit you know, crowd, but it's not bad. One great thing is that's 5,000 season ticket deposits for women's sports. And they won't be alone either. Columbus, Ohio is also coming in 2028 as the league's 18th team. No set name on them yet either, but as soon as it comes out, I will be sure to let you know. So welcome to the club, Atlanta. We know exactly what it's like to wait for that first season. And I can tell you from the other side, in a playoff race with four games left, the wait is worth it. And speaking of the playoff race, Like I said before, October 17th, we are at home against Angel City at Centennial. Be sure to get your tickets now. This season is not over yet. Bring somebody, be loud. We are six wins, three losses, and four draws at year. And that crowd has to be the reason Angel City leaves with nothing. So what happened on Saturday? this is where I land. We were the better team for half an hour. But the game is 90 minutes. Abby saved a penalty, a great save, and then we got caught in the spin dryer against what Nick called the two best transition wingers in the league. And we just couldn't get out. And that's on the players. And they said so. Janine owned it, Nick owned it. But I keep coming back to those first 30 minutes. That was us passing through the only team in this league that hasn't lost at home in their building. That team exists. We've seen it all season. We saw it against Seattle. We saw it for half an hour on Saturday. And I think that that team goes to Chicago on Sunday, gets three points, and gets this thing right back within reach. That is it for today's episode. If you liked it, please hit subscribe, leave a review, and share it with somebody. that is the biggest thing you can do for an independent show just like this one. And it's how more people find women's soccer. Be sure to sign up for the newsletter at 5280pitch.com. I send out one email a week. It's different than what I talk about here on the show. Always great merch drops in there. I did have somebody in the 14ers reach out about the 5280 pitch rope hat that I wear at the stadium and on the show here before they reached out. That hat was only for yours truly. But they said they loved the hat, so I made it available for all of you. I will be sure to link it in the show notes. Go check out the rope hat. It is now available. And if you're on the newsletter, like I said, you get a special discount. and if you haven't checked out the playoff tracker yet, be sure to do it. We're not out of this thing, folks. Yes, we need some help. Yes, we need to win these last four games. But we're not out of it yet. Go check out what needs to happen at 5280pitch.com. Play around with it. it's a lot of fun. That's at 5280pitch.com. I'm Kate Hansen. This is the 5280 Pitch Women's Soccer at Altitude. I'll talk with you soon.