What Broke vs. Kansas City and the Houston Preview

Kate Hanson: Lindsay Hebes came to see her new team for the first time on Friday. In person. Finally. She's standing in her building watching the club she's about to captain. this is what they showed her. 4.4. expected goals against us at home. not my number, that's Nick Cushing's. ⁓ said it at the podium and then he said this probably the second worst defeat ⁓ his entire managerial career. And here's the part that's actually been sitting in my chest all weekend. ⁓ It's not they lost, ⁓ it's where. has scored five goals at home this season. Five. 12 on the road, five at home. Something happens to this team when they walk into their own stadium, ⁓ And on Friday, in front of a packed house, another sold-out crowd with the face of the franchise sitting in the building, it fully came apart. So, no, we're not glossing over Friday's game. Welcome back to the 5280 Pitch Women's Soccer at Altitude. Kate Hansen. ⁓ on Sunday, and I promise we will get there. There's gonna be a full preview ⁓ that Houston game. But yet, because I can't look you in the eye and preview the next one until we've been honest about this one. And ⁓ I honest, not a tough night. We move on. The reason I'm not glossing over it is because the people who were actually on the field, they weren't glossing over it. They weren't spinning it, saying, ⁓ the break was long. So neither am I. it ⁓ down in episode. Here's the thing that's going to mess with your head, folks. Denver dominated the ball on Friday. I'm serious. 56% possession. completed passes Kansas City. 322 to 237. More trips into the final third. ⁓ By every measure of who controlled game, it was Denver. ⁓ they created zero chances. Zero. Kansas City, let this sit with you. City created nine. So how does that happen? How do you have the ball the whole night and generate nothing? Cushing had a word for it and it's it's the perfect word. It was a nervous possession game, passing it around, looking busy, terrified to actually do anything with it. Seven shots all night, three on target, and four of those seven came from outside the box. 18 touches inside Kansas City's box, and it added up to basically nothing. He told the press afterwards that he knew exactly what Kansas City was going to do, and they'd planned for it all week. They and they unfortunately walked right into it. They played into ⁓ their hands. They played Kansas City's game, lacked composure. And Janine also said it just as on the podium that performance was well below their and a team like Kansas City is going to take advantage of that. Which brings me to the real story of this game, because all that possession, it wasn't harmless. time Denver gave it away, it turned into a sprint the other direction. And that's where this fell apart. Denver played too high. That is the whole thing. That's the whole game. And what kills me is it wasn't the plan going wrong. it was the plan. Denver pushed the lineup, ⁓ pushed Janine Saunis all way up the field as an attacking mid. Cushing said it flat out. Janine is up top. She led the entire team in crosses from up there. ⁓ And when your line is that against a team that does ⁓ one thing ⁓ better than anyone it's sit, and punish, you're playing directly into their game. And here's the thing, and listen to this because she doesn't dodge the criticism for a second. We handled it well in the first half and then we got too open. That is your captain telling you the exact moment that the floor gave out. And the numbers back her up in the ugliest way. So Kansas City got flagged offside seven times. Yes, seven. That's not sloppiness. That's how many times they were flying in behind Denver's back line, trying to time the run. ⁓ knew what they were going to do. They knew what the plan was, ⁓ yet they did nothing ⁓ stop it. And when Kansas City got it right, were gone ⁓ every time, leaving Abby Smith out to drive. 12 of Kansas City's 13 shots came from inside the box. The official report has Denver down for two errors that led directly to the goals. Kansas City, Denver got ⁓ 13 times and out tackled 21 to 12. The four spent the entire night on an island. And you see it if watching the game, ⁓ you could it, Nick Cushing trying to fix it in real time. Carson Pickett Carson ⁓ off halftime. Io okay late. He was shuffling that back line trying to stop the bleeding. ⁓ And here's he broke down what they were actually trying to do ⁓ during the and why it work. Get Eva on Chewinga, get KK on Cooper, play around the press. It's was the plan. And it needed Denver to beat that first line of pressure for it to work. Fortunately, they didn't. So instead of playing around Kansas City, they kept handing it to them. And you give Cooper, Bethune, and Chewinga one-on-ones all night. Michelle Cooper had two shots. She scored two goals. Bethune set up two of the three. not ⁓ luck. That's that's math. Denver even coughed up a in the box. Ava Gaetino a terrible, was beat on the play and ⁓ got the ⁓ and they the penalty. She picked up the only booking. Thankfully, City couldn't cash in on the penalty shot. But back was under pressure all night. They under that much pressure where they were ⁓ the back line scrambling to and making ⁓ poor decisions in box. So here's a stat you. And it might be the ⁓ one ⁓ from the whole Abby was named player of match by the 14ers. Sit with that. goalkeeper, the last line of defense that got carved up all night, was the best player on your team. ⁓ that doesn't happen in a game that went the way it sh that it should have. That happens when your keeper is standing alone a hailstorm. She faced eight shots on target and turned away five of them. City created nine big chances and only buried three. And a big reason that number wasn't five or six ⁓ the woman ⁓ Abby Smith, the woman in goal. ⁓ even built her into the game plan, bringing her off her line to help against Chewinga. She was ⁓ involved. So when I say three not ⁓ when I say three nothing ⁓ the merciful version of this score line, I mean it. Abby Smith is that reason. In a loss this ugly, she was the one bright, defiant thing on the field. let the score line hide it. This was not an Abby Smith loss. Now The excuse was right there for the taking. Five weeks off, right? First game back. And will tell you he did not love the midseason break. I don't think anyone really did. ⁓ to how he lays it out because There's a real story here about the that this was building before the break. Way below the level of this project. And that's the line, right? And notice what he did not do. He did not blame the break. He said it hurt a new team's rhythm. Sure, but the performance was on them. He took it on himself and his staff, said he felt exactly like this before, San Diego, after Boston. And the whole point now ⁓ to not feel like this ⁓ in July, August, September, October. And Janine backed every bit of what happened. No excuses. Kansas City had the same month off and came in and won by three. We turned it over too easy, she said. Technical errors. Everyone, herself included, nobody in that locker room reached for the easy way out. And honestly, that's the first thing that gives me hope. So, are we? We have 15 points, bad night against the Kansas City side that's now sitting at 24 points and get this, has not drawn a single game all year. They win or they lose. There's no in between with this team. And on Friday they won. But here's what I keep coming back to. Everything that went wrong on Friday, Denver did to itself. Too high, too loose, too nervous, and as backwards as it sounds, the good news. You cannot coach heart into a team that got outclassed. You absolutely can drop a line that's five yards too high and clean up 13 giveaways. That is fixable. That's Tuesday's problem. And Janine already knows the clock is running. Yeah, it's coming fast. She's right. Houston's coming to dicks on Sunday. So let's talk about how Denver makes sure that Friday was the floor and not the start of something worse. for those of you watching over on YouTube, if you didn't know that this is on YouTube and you just listened, you can also watch ⁓ the show. I do include highlights and clips and all that, but. You might notice that I'm not at the studio. I am at home because it's summer. So I am filming the fifty two eighty pitch, not from my studio location. ⁓ number of you asked, wait, where what is your backdrop? Where are you? Well, I'm not at the studio because it's summer. And And you also might notice my voice sounds terrible. It's because of all these fires going around here in the Denver metro area. For those of you listening from afar, we've got a ton of fires burning down, burning down our beautiful state. And the air quality right now is terrible. So my voice sounds a little off because of the air quality here in the Denver area. Back to Denver. It's not gonna be easy this week as the Houston Dash come to town. It's gonna be a hot one, but let's get into it. Okay, so does a team that scored five goals at home all season fix that in one night? That's the goal. And the the answer is Yasmin Ryan. Be but before I get to her, I want to correct something you might be thinking, because I was thinking about it too after Friday. You might be thinking, sitting there thinking, Why can't we score? This team can't score. Denver's offense is broken. It's not, and I can prove it. has scored nine goals in their last five matches. Nine. That's not a broken offense. That's one of the more productive stretches they've had all year. So the scoring isn't the problem. Five I want you to listen to this part. Five goals at home all season. in the last five games overall. Five at home in seventeen games. No, that's not right. Five at home. You see it, right? was never a problem. It's something here in Denver. Something specifically happens to this team when they play at home. And that is a very different and much more fixable thing than ⁓ can't ⁓ Okay, so yes. ⁓ And here's number that I that should make you sit up. Ryan has created ten big chances this season. Ten. And 10 chances is great. So good. It has her sitting at second. And not just second on second on Denver, second in in the entire league. The whole NWSL. She's got 22 chances created and 3.3 expected assists on top of it. And both are team highs. And it's not even close. When something dangerous happens for Denver, it runs through Yaz every single time. So the chances are getting created. That part's handled. The question, the only one that matters on Sunday, is whether somebody finishes them. Because Denver makes 2.6 big chances a game, which is genuine, genuinely a good number, and then leaves too many out there. Custler alone has missed four big chances this season, a team high. That's the whole thing in one sentence. Get to the right spots. Don't pull the trigger. And that's where I have to bring up a name. And then be honest that I can't finish the sentence. Tash Lint. Four goals, second highest rating on the roster, one of the few players on this team who actually has been burying her chances. And she's out with the rib injury. I do not have an official word on whether she's available on Sunday. I'll be asking on Wednesday, but this episode obviously is coming out before that. So make sure that you're following the 5280 pitch on threads and on Instagram. And the second I hear, you'll hear. Because if Flint is back in that lineup, this entire finishing conversation gets a lot more optimistic. Here's why I think the looks are coming no matter who's on the field, because Houston will let you shoot a lot. So let me give you the full picture of this Dash team because it's worse than you think. 12th in the table, their expected goal differential for the season is minus 13.9. Second worst in the entire league. Their expected goals against sits at 24.3. That is the second leakiest defense in the NWSL, and they have not kept a clean sheet in seven straight matches. Now, here's what ties right back to Friday. And I love this one. Houston's expected goals against is 24.3. Denver's is 18.4. But look at what each team has actually given up. Houston's conceded 21, Denver's conceded 16. So Houston is bleeding chances and giving up basically what you'd expect. Denver's bleeding fewer chances and conceding fewer than expected. And that gap, the difference between Denver's expected goals against and what they're actually allowed. That's a person. Yeah. Abby Smith. The same Abby Smith we just talked about in the in the recap part of today's episode. She won player of the match in a 3-0 loss. She's not just stealing points in games like she did on Friday. She's been doing it all season. Denver's goalkeeping is honestly their biggest strength right now. Which brings me to Jane Campbell because her stat line is the whole Houston story. Campbell is third in the entire league in saves per game. 3.9 a match. And I need you To understand what that actually means, you are not third in the league in saves because you're a hero. You're third in the league in saves because your defense hangs you out to try every single week. She's making all those saves because she has to. Houston bleeds 24 plus expected goals and has only conceded 21. Campbell is the reason it's not 30. That's a defense you can score on, and I'm not theorizing this. Denver already did it. May 9th, down in Houston, we won 4-1. This is not hope. This is a projection. Denver has literally done already on the road the exact same thing I'm expecting them to do at home. In Houston, they're wanting a big win right now too. Their recent results. Before they they lost just on the 4th of July, they lost to Washington. Before that, they lost to Utah, drew Seattle, lost to North Carolina. They've scored five goals in their last five matches, half of what Denver's managed. This is a team in a rough patch try traveling to altitude on the back end of a bad road stretch. Now, before you pencil in three points and say, okay, got it, we got an easy win. This is ⁓ a walk in the park. And there Two names I need you to know. The one everyone's talking about is Kiki Van Zanten. She's back. We didn't see her last time. She's that asterisk on that 4-1 victory because she wasn't there. Her game log She did not play a single game in the month of May. Denver got the version of Houston without one of their most dangerous weapons. And here's what makes Van Zanten scary. I went digging on this because it's generally wild. Zanten has four goals this season. All four came exactly two games: ⁓ brace against Boston in March and brace against Louisville in April. When Kiki Van Zanten is on, she is on. She doesn't score one, she scores two, and she takes over the whole game. and this is a big but, outside those two games, she's been quiet and she's still working back from injury. In fact, when she played against Washington, ⁓ started and came off at halftime. She only played 45 minutes. So Denver's catching her ⁓ she's not quite up to speed. And then the name that No one's really talking about on this roster. The one that's actually worries me more is Kat Rader. Same four goals as Van Zanton, but underneath it, and but if you dig underneath it, Raider leads the entire dash in expected goals, in chances, and in expected assists. She is the steadiest, most productive attacker on that roster, and she gets a fraction of the attention. If Denver spends 90 minutes locked onto Kiki and forgets that Radar is on the field, that is exactly How are you going to get punished? And make no mistake, Houston thinks that this is their get right game, too. Van Danten said it out loud this week, flat out. They are focused on Denver. They're going for all three points. So they are rolling in here, confident and a little desperate. good, let them. Because here's the part I actually care about the most. This the last game at Dicks, thankfully. Centennial opens July 18th against Portland, which is going to be a very tough matchup. Sunday is their send-off game. The final 90 minutes this team ever plays at Dick Sporting Goods. And I don't wanna remember it as a place where a twelfth place team came in, walk came in and took points off of us. sell out that larger stadium and play for I'm gonna say this ⁓ one more ⁓ We've been selling out dicks. We've every time we've played there, we've sold it out. We're going to sell it out again on Sunday. This is the part that we have to fix. The five goals at home all season. And I already showed you it's not the offense. Nine in the last five proves it. So something, it's something else. They get tight in that building, tentative, nervous. Friday was one of the ugliest versions of it that we've ever seen, and that has to end on Sunday, right? It has to end Sunday. here's my ask. And it's not to the summit, it's not to the players. It is to you. We to fill that place. We need to get loud early before the have a chance to creep in. And we are at 5280 feet for a reason, is literally the name of the show. Houston is coming in from sea level into altitude, into a loud Sunday evening crowd ⁓ at the end of a road trip. Hmm. This is our advantage. We have to start using it. And it only works if that building is packed and loud enough to make them feel every single one of those 5,280 feet. That is the 12th man. make dicks mean something ⁓ the way out the door. So, what actually happens in this game? I'm gonna put my neck out there because Denver's the better team. paper, 10th against 12th, but just about everywhere where the numbers go. A goalkeeper playing at a completely different level, and they already beat these guys by three earlier in the season. Yaz Ryan is going to carve out four or five golden looks, ⁓ even if two of them go in, if somebody finally finishes it, this a very comfortable evening. So my prediction: Denver 2, Hugh. ⁓ Houston one. Someone's gonna find a way to get one in the back of the neck. But I think Denver is going to But the summit are going to end their time at Dick's with a victory. What we have to do is contain Kiki, respect Raider, and feed Yaz. And for the love of everything holy, put the ball in the net at home. Just Before we leave this place for good and head on over to Centennial. Alright, that is this week's show, Sunday, 5 o'clock at Dick Sporting Goods Park, the last one before Centennial. you can't be there, be there, be there, ⁓ loud, follow along to the 5280 Pitch on social media, ⁓ 5280pitch.com. We have merch. ⁓ if you're following on social media, ⁓ did give away four tickets to the game on So ⁓ gotta sure you're following the show. ⁓ Stay connected. And you enjoyed today's episode, be to ⁓ like, leave a review, all the things because when do that, it helps more people find the show and it helps us get more people ⁓ excited about soccer here Altitude, your Denver Summit. Saturday's gonna be, or Sunday's gonna be hot, folks. It's we're predicting right now. The weather forecast is saying 97 at kickoff. gonna be a hot one. Come loud. ⁓ Show summit that we their back, that we are here for them. that we are here for them. And let's send them of Dick Sporting His Park and Centennial Stadium. with their fans behind them. Like I said, I will be heading to practice week ⁓ get more details for you. So be sure to follow the show. I post a lot over on YouTube as well, as far as clips and news. So follow the show, ⁓ connect me. ⁓ If enjoying the show, if you have any questions, be sure to reach out. But ⁓ that'll it for today's episode. I'm Kate Hansen. This is Ben at the 5280 Pitch, Women's Soccer at Altitude.